一大主线创本轮收盘新高！以史为鉴，本轮牛市空间有多大？

Market Overview - Guohai Securities released a strategy report titled "Ten Rules of Bull Markets," summarizing key insights from past bull markets and current market conditions [1] - The A-share market saw a collective rise in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index increasing between 0.46% and 0.66% [3] - The market sentiment improved, with over 3,800 stocks rising despite external negative factors [3] Bull Market Insights - Historical bull markets (2005-2007, 2014-2015, 2019-2021) saw the CSI 300 index peak around 5,500 points, indicating a 32% potential upside from current levels [1] - The current CSI 300 dividend yield is approximately 2.8%, suggesting an 85% upside if it returns to 1.5% [1] - The timing of past bull markets often coincided with the transition of five-year plans, with the next potential bull market expected to start in 2024 and peak around 2025-2026 [1][2] Leading Styles and Sectors - Advanced manufacturing and growth technology sectors have historically led bull markets, with advanced manufacturing consistently ranking in the top two [2] - Current growth in advanced manufacturing is below 45%, while growth technology has seen around 55% increase, both lower than previous bull markets [2] - Key leading industries in past bull markets included military, electric equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and automobiles, with military consistently ranking in the top ten [2] Sector Performance - The military sector is currently leading the market, driven by factors such as the upcoming military parade and a potential reversal in domestic demand [5] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is characterized by institutional dominance, with significant participation from quantitative and retail investors [6] - The innovative pharmaceutical index reached a new closing high, supported by upcoming major academic conferences [6] Future Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to benefit from a transition to new growth drivers, particularly in the context of AI advancements [7] - The internet sector index rose by 1.63%, with potential for further gains if it can break through resistance levels [9] - The market is anticipated to continue its upward trend in the short term, with a focus on breaking through key resistance levels [11]