【白银期货收评】沪银日内上涨1.30% 银价行情压力仍存

Group 1 - Silver futures closed at 9039 yuan per kilogram on August 4, with a daily increase of 1.30% and a trading volume of 513,898 contracts [1] - The Shanghai silver spot price was quoted at 8940 yuan per kilogram, indicating a discount of 99 yuan per kilogram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was significantly below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, leading to concerns about a potential economic recession [1] Group 2 - The market has fully priced in expectations for two interest rate cuts this year, with an 82% probability for the first cut occurring in September [1] - The weak employment data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar, which may lose its weekly leading position if the sell-off continues [1] - The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are positioned second and third respectively, while the euro remains the weakest currency [1] Group 3 - Daiyue Futures noted that silver prices continued to decline due to reduced risk appetite, but expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a rebound in silver prices following gold [3] - The premium for Shanghai silver has expanded to approximately 420 yuan per kilogram, indicating market dynamics [3] - Despite the support from rising silver prices due to interest rate cut expectations, domestic commodity sentiment has shifted, suggesting ongoing pressure on silver prices [3]