Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in August shows a steady decline in supply from developers, with significant constraints on new housing supply due to land availability, leading to a low overall supply level for the year [1][2]. Supply Overview - In August, 28 key cities are expected to see a new residential supply of 4.76 million square meters, representing a month-on-month decrease of 26% and a year-on-year decline of 38%, marking the second-lowest supply level of the year [1]. - The cumulative year-on-year supply for the first eight months of 2025 has decreased by 17% [1]. - First-tier cities are under pressure, with only Guangzhou showing growth, while over 60% of second-tier cities experienced declines [1][2]. City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities are expected to supply only 740,000 square meters in August, down 45% month-on-month and 53% year-on-year, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen all experiencing significant declines [2]. - Guangzhou is the only first-tier city with a month-on-month increase of 13%, with its cumulative year-on-year decline narrowing to 5% [2]. - In second-tier cities, the expected supply is 3.55 million square meters, down 24% month-on-month and 36% year-on-year, with 12 out of 19 cities experiencing declines [2]. Third and Fourth Tier Cities - The supply in third and fourth-tier cities remains low, with an expected new supply of 480,000 square meters in August, reflecting a 9% month-on-month increase but a 4% year-on-year decrease [3]. - Wuxi is noted for a significant increase in supply, while other cities like Changzhou and Quanzhou show substantial declines [3]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is characterized by 30% for basic needs, 51% for improvements, and 19% for high-end products, indicating a shift towards improvement demand [5]. - Over 70% of cities focus on main urban areas for supply, with a notable increase in high-end product ratios in cities like Jinan [5][8]. Future Expectations - The overall new housing transaction volume is expected to remain low, with potential for a narrowing year-on-year decline of within 5% due to a low base from the previous year [11]. - The market may see a divergence in performance among cities, with some second-tier cities like Tianjin and Suzhou potentially experiencing a phase of recovery [11]. - The second-hand housing market is anticipated to slow down, primarily attracting price-sensitive buyers due to the enhanced competitiveness of new housing products [11].
克而瑞：8月房企推盘积极性稳步回落 一线城市全面承压
智通财经网·2025-08-04 11:22