P&G(US:PG) 智通财经网·2025-08-04 11:36Economic Overview - Recent economic data has raised warning signals, confirming concerns among U.S. corporate executives and consumers regarding the economic situation [1] - The non-farm payroll data released last Friday indicated a much worse labor market condition than previously reported, with a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs for May and June [3] - The average job growth over the past three months was only 35,000, marking the worst level since the pandemic [3] Consumer and Business Impact - Many U.S. businesses have paused investments and hiring due to uncertainty surrounding Trump's economic policies, particularly tariffs [4] - Consumer spending has decreased due to rising debt levels, leading to reduced consumption of non-essential goods [4] - Economic growth is expected to be steady but lower than in previous years, with forecasts predicting a 1.5% growth for 2023 and 1.7% by 2026 [4] Inflation and Pricing Pressure - Companies like Procter & Gamble have noted that economic uncertainty is suppressing consumer demand, with CFO Andre Schulten indicating a noticeable slowdown in consumption trends [5] - Prices for frequently imported goods, such as furniture and appliances, have risen, suggesting that companies are passing on higher tariff costs to consumers [5] - Economists anticipate that import tariffs will further increase prices in the coming months [5] Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged the downward risks in the labor market while describing it as "robust," also noting the slowdown in consumer spending [9] - The housing market continues to be a drag on economic growth, with total spending on residential and non-residential projects down 2.9% year-over-year in June, marking one of the most severe annual declines since early 2019 [9] Employment Data Revisions - The recent large-scale revision of employment data revealed that the number of new jobs added in May and June was 258,000 less than previously reported, shifting the labor market from robust growth to near stagnation [12] - Despite a slowdown in hiring, most companies have not resorted to layoffs, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, remaining relatively low [12] - The decline in non-farm employment and rising unemployment will significantly suppress consumer spending, particularly affecting low-income groups reliant on wages [12]