银行债券投资税负增加，哪些对冲策略最受关注

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, effective from August 8, 2023, will impose additional tax burdens on banks, impacting their revenue and profit margins in the coming years [1][2][3]. Tax Burden Impact - The new tax policy will lead to an estimated incremental tax cost of approximately 230 billion yuan for banks in the next year, affecting revenue by about 0.4% and pre-tax profit by around 0.95% [1][3][4]. - Static calculations suggest that the incremental tax revenue from this adjustment will exceed 300 billion yuan in 2025, 600 billion yuan in 2026, and 900 billion yuan in 2027 [1][2]. Market Position and Strategy - Banks, particularly state-owned banks, hold about 30% of the total market bonds, with a significant portion being held to maturity, while smaller financial institutions have a higher trading volume [3][8]. - In response to the tax burden, banks may adopt strategies such as increasing the allocation of older bonds, adjusting their financial investment structures, and enhancing trading capabilities [6][7][8]. Long-term Adjustments - The long-term strategy may involve increasing the scale of outsourced investments, as banks seek to mitigate the impact of the new tax policy [6][8]. - The shift towards more trading-focused strategies is expected, especially as the current trading volume of state-owned banks is relatively low at around 7.7% [7][8]. Financial Asset Classification - Banks categorize their financial assets into three types: TPL (Trading Portfolio), OCI (Other Comprehensive Income), and AC (Amortized Cost), which affects how they report income and manage tax liabilities [6][7]. - The distribution of bonds among these categories shows that state-owned banks have the lowest TPL ratio, indicating potential for growth in trading activities [8].