GILD Likely to Beat on Q2 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences, Inc. is set to report its Q2 2025 results on August 7, with consensus estimates for sales at $6.95 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at $1.95, reflecting a positive trend in earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 [1][4][6]. Financial Performance - The earnings estimate for 2025 has risen to $8.02 from $7.91 per share over the past 60 days, while the estimate for 2026 has increased to $8.53 from $8.39 [1]. - Gilead's earnings surprise history shows that the company has beaten estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 16.48% [2][3]. Sales Drivers - Strong sales from Gilead's HIV drugs, particularly Biktarvy and Descovy, are expected to support top-line growth in Q2, with estimates for Biktarvy at $3.4 billion and Descovy at $577 million [4][8]. - The company has recently received FDA approval for lenacapavir, a twice-yearly injectable HIV-1 capsid inhibitor, which is anticipated to enhance its HIV portfolio [8][16]. Market Dynamics - The introduction of a new Medicare Part D model may have impacted HIV sales due to increased cost-sharing obligations for low-income patients, which could affect overall sales [7][6]. - Gilead's liver disease portfolio is expected to benefit from higher demand for viral hepatitis medicines, with incremental sales from the newly approved drug Livdelzi [9][10]. Competitive Landscape - Gilead's cell therapy sales, particularly for Yescarta and Tecartus, are likely to have declined due to competitive pressures in both the U.S. and global markets [11][17]. - The oncology portfolio, including Trodelvy, is showing strong demand, although the cell therapy segment faces ongoing challenges [13][17]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Gilead's shares have increased by 22.5% year-to-date, outperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [14]. - The stock currently trades at a price/earnings ratio of 13.60x forward earnings, which is higher than its historical mean but lower than the large-cap pharma industry average [15]. Strategic Outlook - Gilead's strategic deals and acquisitions are seen as positive for diversifying its business, with ongoing collaborations to enhance its HIV treatment offerings [18][22]. - The company is viewed as a safe haven for investors in the biotech sector, with a strong dividend yield adding to its attractiveness [19][23].