Canadian Natural to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 earnings of 44 cents per share on revenues of $6.28 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decrease in both earnings and revenues [1][3][8]. Group 1: Recent Performance - In the last reported quarter, CNQ achieved adjusted earnings per share of 81 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 73 cents, with total revenues of $7.6 billion exceeding the estimate of $6.8 billion [2]. - CNQ has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate three times in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 3.95% [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Q2 Performance - The company has seen a rebound in North America's natural gas prices, with Henry Hub spot prices averaging $3.19 per million British thermal units in Q2 2025, which is expected to support CNQ's realized pricing [5]. - CNQ's production growth is anticipated to be around 12% for the year, driven by recent acquisitions and ongoing drilling programs, contributing to increased output in Q2 2025 [6]. - However, revenues are projected to decline by 5.1% from the previous year due to poor performance in the Exploration and Production segments [7]. Group 3: Cost and Margin Pressures - The newly imposed U.S. tariffs on Canadian oil and gas exports since March 2025 are expected to create additional cost burdens and competitive disadvantages for CNQ, impacting margins and earnings [8][9]. - Total expenses for Q2 are estimated at C$7.13 billion, a 4.3% increase from C$6.80 billion in the same quarter last year, with production costs rising by 2.4% to C$2.03 billion [10].