Buy or Sell Amgen Stock Ahead of Its Earnings?

Core Insights - Amgen is scheduled to release its earnings on August 5, 2025, with historical trends indicating a tendency for negative one-day returns post-announcement [2][3] - Analysts project earnings of $5.28 per share and revenue of $8.91 billion, compared to $4.97 per share and $8.39 billion in the same quarter last year [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $160 billion and reported $34 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, resulting in $7.4 billion in operating profits and a net income of $5.9 billion [4] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Amgen's stock has declined 58% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median drop of -2.8% and a maximum one-day negative return of -7.2% [2][7] - Positive one-day returns occurred approximately 42% of the time, with the percentage increasing to 45% when considering the last three years [7] - The median of the eight positive returns was 3.6%, while the median of the eleven negative returns was -2.8% [7] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical trends to inform their positioning ahead of earnings releases [6] - A strategy involves assessing the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings to guide trading decisions [6][8] - The correlation between one-day and five-day returns can indicate potential trading positions, particularly if the one-day return is positive [8]