CPI同比或转负 PPI同比降幅收窄

Core Viewpoint - The current policy focus on "expanding domestic demand" and "reducing competition" is expected to lead to a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may turn negative again due to seasonal factors [1] CPI Analysis - The CPI is projected to rise by 0.16% month-on-month in July, but year-on-year may drop to -0.45% due to base effects [1] - Huachuang Securities forecasts a year-on-year CPI of approximately -0.1% and a month-on-month increase of about 0.3% [1] - The CPI year-on-year growth is expected to weaken from 0.1% in June to -0.2% in July, primarily due to food prices [1][2] Food Price Impact - Food prices are a major factor, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month decline, influenced by seasonal supply increases in fruits and eggs [2] - Wholesale prices show a mixed trend: pork up 1.2%, vegetables up 0.7%, eggs down 1.9%, fruits down 5.2%, beef up 0.1%, and lamb down 0.2% [2] - The vegetable price index in Shouguang turned negative at -11.4% year-on-year, influenced by last year's high base [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI is expected to rise month-on-month by 0.18% and improve year-on-year to -2.79% due to the "reducing competition" policy [3] - Huachuang Securities anticipates a year-on-year PPI improvement from -3.6% to -3.5% [3] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates a rise in the prices of major raw materials, suggesting a potential increase in PPI [3] Energy and External Factors - Energy prices are influenced by external factors such as a strong dollar and OPEC+ production expectations, with Brent crude oil prices showing a year-on-year decline of -17.1% [4] - Coal prices are rising due to increased demand during peak electricity usage [4] - The "reducing competition" policy has positively impacted black metal prices, while construction materials like cement continue to weaken [4] Overall Economic Outlook - The combination of macro policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and addressing "internal competition" is expected to create a more rational competitive environment, potentially accelerating a positive price cycle [4] - Despite the likelihood of PPI remaining negative in the short term, there is a need to monitor policy changes in key industrial chains to prevent irrational price increases [4]