我国货币政策框架转型对债券市场的影响

Core Viewpoint - The monetary policy framework in China is transitioning from quantity-based control to a dual approach of quantity and price-based control, which is expected to enhance the pricing mechanism in the bond market and support the country's financial market opening [1][3][4]. Group 1: Transition of Monetary Policy Framework - The monetary policy framework is accelerating its shift towards price-based control as of 2024, establishing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the main policy rate [3][4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is narrowing the interest rate corridor and diversifying the monetary policy tools available, which will help in guiding the bond market towards reasonable pricing [4][8]. Group 2: Establishment of Key Policy Rates - As of July 2024, the PBOC has streamlined the policy interest rate system, designating the 7-day reverse repurchase rate as the primary policy rate, which will influence various market benchmark rates [4][5]. - The introduction of temporary reverse repurchase operations has established upper and lower limits for short-term interest rates, tightening the interest rate corridor to 70 basis points [7]. Group 3: Diversification of Monetary Base Channels - Since August 2024, the PBOC has initiated government bond trading and introduced the buyout reverse repurchase operation, enhancing the channels for monetary base injection and liquidity management [8][9]. - The buyout reverse repurchase tool, effective from October 2024, fills the maturity gap between the 7-day reverse repurchase and the 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), allowing institutions to bid at different price levels [9][10]. Group 4: Impact on Bond Market Pricing - The establishment of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and other short-term rates provides effective guidance for the pricing of short-term bonds, while the PBOC's bond trading operations influence long-term bond pricing [12][13]. - The transition in monetary policy is expected to correct irrational pricing in the bond market, as the PBOC actively engages in market communication to manage expectations [24][27]. Group 5: Future Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond market is anticipated to shift towards value investing, with a focus on coupon strategies as trading frictions remain constant, leading to a compression of yield spreads between active and non-active bonds [28]. - The PBOC's bond trading operations are expected to enhance the trading activity of certain maturities, similar to practices observed in other countries [28][30]. - The transition in monetary policy is also seen as a preparation for future interest rate hikes, allowing for better management of potential rate risks [29][31].