7月份新增社融或同比增加，三季度末前后存降息降准可能性

Group 1 - The financial sector has maintained reasonable growth in 2023, supporting the real economy effectively [1] - Predictions for July's new RMB loans vary among experts, but an increase in social financing (社融) is expected compared to the previous year [1][2] - In July 2022, new RMB loans amounted to 260 billion and new social financing was 770.8 billion [1] Group 2 - Wang Qing from Dongfang Jincheng predicts that July will see new RMB loans of approximately 350 billion, influenced by supportive monetary policies and increased credit allocation by financial institutions [1] - The issuance of local government bonds for replacing hidden debts is expected to reduce disturbances to new RMB loans in the second half of the year [1] - Huayuan Securities and Industrial Research Company forecast July's new loan scale at 200 billion [2] Group 3 - Li Chao, chief economist at Zheshang Securities, estimates new social financing in July to be 1.46 trillion, primarily supported by government bond financing [2] - Government bond net financing is expected to be around 1.27 trillion, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 576.9 billion [2] - Wang Qing anticipates new social financing of about 1.7 trillion in July, with significant contributions from government bond financing [2] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China (央行) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure sufficient liquidity and reasonable credit growth [3] - Future monetary policy is expected to focus on reducing financing costs for the real economy and increasing credit supply, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated by the end of Q3 [3] - The central bank plans to restore government bond trading and utilize various monetary policy tools to maintain market liquidity and stabilize expectations [3]