中金：宏观视角有多个原因支撑中国股市表现

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that while China's economic indicators require improvement, several factors support the performance of the stock market [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Since the fourth quarter of last year, market confidence in China's medium to long-term economic prospects has significantly improved, particularly due to the positive effects of DeepSeek [1] - Although the real estate sector is still undergoing adjustments, its proportion in the Chinese economy has significantly decreased, reducing its negative impact on the economy [1] - Policymakers have shown increased attention to the economy, stock market, and real estate market, leading to a decline in market concerns regarding downside risks in these areas [1] Group 2: Leverage and Asset Allocation - While the Chinese government's leverage increase has been more restrained compared to the U.S., the macro leverage ratio in the private sector has not declined but has also not continued to rise [1] - Over the past few years, the proportion of Chinese residents allocating to safe assets has increased, and with limited returns on safe assets, there is a rising motivation to moderately increase allocations to risk assets, particularly in the stock market [1] Group 3: Policy Implications - Looking ahead, based on international experience, addressing debt-related policies is crucial during the financial cycle downturn, as these policies can help improve balance sheets and enhance economic vitality, which is also significant for the capital market [1]