银河证券：航司有望迎来量价齐升局面 把握机场底部布局机会

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is expected to see a significant increase in demand for civil aviation travel in 2025, driven by the acceleration of international flight schedules and the implementation of the "924" policy package, which is anticipated to boost domestic demand [1][7]. Industry Overview - The transportation sector experienced a decline of 3.22% in the week from July 28 to August 2, ranking 27th among 31 SW primary industries, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.75% during the same period [2]. - Various sub-sectors within transportation showed the following weekly performance: express delivery (-1.54%), cross-border logistics (-1.68%), ports (-2.40%), warehousing logistics (-2.44%), highways (-2.93%), railways (-3.17%), shipping (-4.20%), airport operations (-4.39%), road freight (-5.23%), and public transport (-6.50%) [2]. Aviation Sector Insights - By June 2025, major listed airlines in China have shown recovery rates in domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) compared to June 2019, with Air China at 150.62%, China Southern at 119.55%, and Spring Airlines at 166.49% [2]. - International and regional ASK recovery rates for the same airlines were 93.36% for Air China, 92.68% for China Southern, and 254.76% for Spring Airlines [2]. Oil and Currency Trends - As of August 1, 2025, Brent crude oil prices were reported at $69.67 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.97% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.39% [3]. - The exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar was 7.1496, showing a slight depreciation of 0.11% week-on-week [3]. Airport Performance - Major airports in China showed recovery in domestic passenger throughput by June 2025, with Baiyun Airport at 120.08% and Shanghai Airport at 119.80% compared to 2019 [3]. - International passenger throughput recovery rates were 89.95% for Baiyun Airport and 104.41% for Shenzhen Airport [3]. Shipping and Port Sector - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was reported at 1551 points as of August 1, 2025, down 2.63% week-on-week and down 53.47% year-on-year [4]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was at 2018 points, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 10.59% but a year-on-year increase of 20.98% [4]. Road and Rail Transport - In June 2025, railway passenger volume reached 373 million, up 3.61% year-on-year, while road passenger volume was 948 million, down 3.72% [5]. - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 126.32 billion Yuan in June 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.00% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The aviation sector is poised for a recovery in demand, with airlines likely to benefit from improved pricing dynamics and increased passenger volumes [7]. - The airport sector is expected to see a recovery in international passenger traffic, supported by macroeconomic policies and consumer demand [7]. - The cross-border logistics sector is anticipated to benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, while the express delivery sector remains promising due to the ongoing development of e-commerce [8].