Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang·2025-08-05 01:35Industry Overview - The domestic potassium chloride production capacity is mainly concentrated in Qinghai and Xinjiang, with Salt Lake Co. and Zangge Mining being the largest producers in China [1][5] - In the first five months of 2025, China's potassium chloride production was 2.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.79%, while consumption was 7.73 million tons, down 3.46% year-on-year, indicating a dual decline in both production and consumption [1][5] - The expansion of domestic potassium chloride production capacity is limited due to resource endowment and mining conditions, particularly in major production areas like Qinghai and Xinjiang [1][5] Market Dynamics - Despite the importance of potassium fertilizer for food security, the demand for traditional potassium chloride is slowing due to changes in agricultural planting structures and the promotion of new fertilizers [1][5] - Global economic uncertainties have also impacted industrial demand for potassium chloride, leading some downstream enterprises to adopt cautious procurement strategies [1][5] Price Trends - By the end of June 2025, the domestic potassium chloride market experienced an unusual price increase, with domestic salt lake potassium chloride prices reaching 3,050-3,100 RMB/ton, and port prices for white potassium exceeding 3,300 RMB/ton [7] - The China Potassium Chloride Wholesale Price Index (CKPI) on June 30 was 3,177.90 points, a year-on-year increase of 23.35% and a 60.69% increase compared to the base period (2015) [7] Production Capacity and Utilization - As of June 2025, the industry operating rate was 61.77%, a decrease of 20.22 percentage points month-on-month and 6.89 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The production capacity utilization of Salt Lake Co. was below 70%, while Zangge Mining's capacity was limited due to mining intensity issues, leading to an overall contraction in industry output [9] Import and Export Trends - In the first half of 2025, China's potassium chloride imports were 6.36 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%, with an import value of 12.85 billion RMB, down 11.14% [12] - Exports were significantly lower, with only 25,100 tons exported, a year-on-year decrease of 64.23%, reflecting changes in domestic and international market conditions [12] Competitive Landscape - The potassium chloride industry in China is highly concentrated, with the top two companies (Salt Lake Co. and Zangge Mining) holding over 70% market share, and the top five companies accounting for more than 85% [14] - The competitive advantage of leading companies stems from resource endowment differences, with the salt lake resources in the Qaidam Basin accounting for 96% of domestic capacity [14] Key Companies - Salt Lake Co. is the largest potassium chloride producer in China, with a designed capacity of 5 million tons and significant resource advantages in the Qaidam Basin [16] - Zangge Mining is the second-largest producer, with a production capacity of 2 million tons and advanced technology for resource development [18] Industry Development Trends - The industry is transitioning from reliance on domestic resources to global resource allocation, with leading companies accelerating overseas expansion due to domestic resource depletion and stricter environmental policies [20] - Technological innovations are driving industry upgrades, focusing on efficient resource utilization and low-carbon transformation [21][22] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize supply chains, including reserve systems and transportation cost reductions [23]