特朗普着手改造美联储和劳工统计局：美元将成为最大受害者？

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding the credibility of U.S. institutions, which may lead to further selling pressure on the dollar and other U.S. assets [1][6]. Group 1: Economic and Market Implications - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, a hawkish figure, may accelerate market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 94.4% probability of a rate cut in September now priced in by the market [3][5]. - The recent weak non-farm payroll data has prompted traders to increase bets on Fed rate cuts, contributing to a decline in the dollar against all G10 currencies [1][3]. - The ICE Dollar Index fell to a one-week low of 98.58, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index down nearly 8% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Political Influence on Economic Data - Trump's recent actions, including the firing of the Labor Statistics Bureau head, have raised concerns about the integrity of U.S. economic data, potentially leading to a higher risk premium for U.S. assets [1][6]. - Analysts suggest that the political pressure exerted by Trump on the Fed has undermined its independence, further complicating the market's perception of U.S. economic data reliability [6][8]. - The potential nomination of close Trump associates to key economic positions could negatively impact investor sentiment towards the dollar [6][8]. Group 3: Future Leadership of the Fed - The upcoming nomination for the Fed chair position is seen as a risk event for the market, especially with speculation surrounding potential candidates [8]. - Candidates with prior Fed experience, such as Kevin Warsh, are viewed more favorably compared to those closely associated with Trump, like Kevin Hassett [7][8].