俄乌冲突停火期限问题引发供应担忧，欧洲气价上涨；省内天然气管道运价机制发布，促城燃降本放量

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights concerns over natural gas supply due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict, leading to fluctuations in gas prices across different regions [1][2]. Price Tracking - Natural gas prices have shown varied changes: US HH prices decreased by 4.4%, while European TTF prices increased by 4.9%. The prices for East Asia JKM, China LNG ex-factory, and China LNG CIF also experienced slight increases and decreases, resulting in a price inversion between domestic and international gas prices [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The average total supply of natural gas in the US increased by 0.3% week-on-week to 1,132 billion cubic feet per day, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. Total demand rose by 4.6% week-on-week to 1,096 billion cubic feet per day, with significant increases in gas consumption for power generation and residential/commercial sectors [3]. - European gas prices rose by 4.9% due to concerns over potential sanctions on Russian oil exports if a ceasefire is not reached. European gas consumption is projected to be 1,920 billion cubic meters in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [3]. - Domestic gas prices in China decreased by 1.1% week-on-week, with a slight year-on-year decline in apparent gas consumption [3]. Pricing Progress - As of 2025, 64% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter. There remains a 10% space for price adjustment in the market [4]. Pipeline Pricing Mechanism - New guidelines for provincial natural gas pipeline transportation pricing were issued, aiming to reduce costs for downstream users. The allowed return on pipeline assets is set to be lower than current levels, which is expected to facilitate cost reductions for city gas companies [5]. Investment Recommendations - The outlook for 2025 suggests a relaxed supply environment and cost optimization for gas companies. Key recommendations include focusing on companies with US gas sources and those involved in provincial pipeline operations. Specific companies highlighted include Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [6].