天然橡胶：海外原料止跌 空单离场

Group 1 - As of August 4, cup rubber prices are at 47.40 THB/kg and latex at 54.00 THB/kg, with Yunnan rubber purchasing price at 14,400 CNY/ton and Hainan fresh latex at 13,600 CNY/ton [1] - The capacity utilization rate for semi-steel tire sample enterprises is 69.98%, down 0.08 percentage points month-on-month and down 10.19 percentage points year-on-year, while full-steel tire utilization is at 59.26%, down 2.97 percentage points month-on-month and down 0.20 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Finished product inventory for semi-steel tires has decreased, with average inventory turnover days at 45.64 days, down 0.91 days month-on-month and up 9.48 days year-on-year [1] Group 2 - ANRPC forecasts a 1.5% decrease in global natural rubber production to 1.191 million tons in June 2025, while consumption is expected to increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons [2] - For the first half of the year, global natural rubber production is projected to decline by 1.1% to 6.076 million tons, while consumption is expected to rise by 1% to 7.715 million tons [2] - By 2025, global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 0.5% year-on-year to 14.892 million tons, with notable increases in Thailand (1.2%) and China (6%), while Indonesia is expected to see a decrease of 9.8% [2] Group 3 - Supply side shows overseas raw material prices have stopped falling, with attention on the raw material supply during peak production periods [3] - Domestic market demand is weak, with some snow tire production being released early, leading to high social inventory and limited further increases in production [3] - Tire companies are expected to maintain low operating levels due to production and sales pressures, with potential maintenance arrangements at the end of the month [3]