Market Performance - Treasury futures opened significantly higher but weakened in the afternoon, with mixed closing performances; the 30-year main contract rose by 0.08%, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.02%, and the 5-year main contract fell by 0.01% [1] - Notably, there was a clear divergence in performance among different delivery months for the same maturity; for example, the 10-year treasury futures T2509 rose by 0.02%, while T2512 and T2603 fell by 0.17% and 0.34% respectively [1] - In the interbank market, major interest rate bonds initially saw yields decline but later turned to a noticeable increase; as of 17:00, the yield on the 30-year treasury bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury 02" rose by 1.9 basis points to 1.9220% [1] Funding Situation - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 544.8 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and winning amount [2] - On that day, 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market remains stable with a slight increase in DR001, hovering around 1.31%, while overnight funding rates for non-bank institutions' pledged certificates and credit bonds decreased slightly [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission indicated plans to expedite the approval of new policy financial instruments, with several regions already holding meetings to seize policy dividends [3] - The issuance of government bonds, including ultra-long special treasury bonds and new special bonds, is expected to accelerate, supporting infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [3] - A new tax policy on bond interest income will take effect on August 8, 2025, imposing a 6% VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [3] Operational Recommendations - The new tax regulations on treasury bonds may enhance demand for older bonds, potentially widening the yield spread between new and old bonds [4] - There is a possibility that new bonds issued after August 8 may become the deliverable bonds for T, TF, and TS contracts, leading to weaker performance in long-term contracts [4] - The overall expectation for early August includes a favorable environment for bond trading, with anticipated stability in interest rates and potential for upward movement in bond prices [4]
国债期货：股债跷跷板效应施压 期债走势先扬后抑
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-05 02:04