机构预测美联储9月将首次降息，年内或降息2次！海外流动性有望外溢至港股

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, experienced volatility with a significant drop after an initial rise, reflecting broader market trends [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) mirrored this volatility, with notable gains in stocks like Horizon Robotics, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Xpeng Motors, while NIO, Kingdee International, BYD, Li Auto, and Meituan saw declines [1] - Southbound capital inflow exceeded 4 billion HKD during the trading day, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [1] - Analysts at Huatai Securities noted a cooling job market since April, predicting continued slowdown in the U.S. employment sector in Q3, which may lead to two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the latter half of the year [1] - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that the timing for rate cuts is approaching, citing signs of a weakening job market and the lack of sustained inflation from tariffs [1] Group 3 - Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have significantly increased, with over 90% probability for a 25 basis point cut in the September meeting, which could positively impact the Hong Kong stock market, especially the tech sector [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently viewed as undervalued and is highly sensitive to changes in U.S.-China interest rate differentials, suggesting it could benefit greatly from a loosening of overseas liquidity [2] - The index is characterized by high elasticity and growth potential, indicating that improvements in market conditions could lead to stronger upward momentum [2]