焦炭：主流焦化厂第五轮提涨落地 焦化利润有所修复 仍有提涨预期

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal and coke futures indicate a potential for price increases, driven by supply constraints and demand stability, with expectations for further price hikes in the near future [6] Supply - As of July 31, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants was 648,000 tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.2%. The average daily production from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.2%, resulting in a total production of 1,118,000 tons per day, which remained stable week-on-week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,407,100 tons, down by 15,200 tons compared to the previous period. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week, while the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57%. The profitability rate for steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73% [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total inventory of coke was 9.712 million tons, an increase of 0.8% week-on-week. The inventory at independent coking enterprises was 736,000 tons, down by 6.5%, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.267 million tons, down by 13.3%. Port inventory was 2.709 million tons, up by 20.6% [5] Profitability - The average profit per ton of coke nationwide was -45 yuan. In Shanxi, the average profit was -32 yuan per ton, while in Shandong, it was 18 yuan per ton. Inner Mongolia reported an average loss of 105 yuan per ton, and Hebei had an average profit of 13 yuan per ton [2] Market Outlook - The fifth round of price increases for coke has been implemented, with an increase of 50 to 55 yuan per ton. The price for premium dry coke is now 1,475 yuan per ton, and further price increases are anticipated. Supply recovery from coal mines has not met expectations, and while coking limits have been lifted, production is constrained due to losses. Downstream demand remains supportive, with expectations for a slight decline in pig iron production in August [6]