美联储宽松预期升温 欧元高收益债风险溢价收窄

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar is currently trading around 1.15, with a slight decline of 0.09% from the previous close of 1.1569, influenced by rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The cost of credit default swaps (CDS) for European high-yield bonds has significantly decreased, with the iTraxx Europe Crossover Index dropping 3 basis points to 278 basis points, marking a one-month low [1] - The decline in CDS costs is primarily driven by a substantial downward revision in US non-farm payroll data, which has strengthened market expectations for an upcoming easing cycle by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - If the euro breaks above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1645, it may rise further to 1.1700, with subsequent resistance levels at 1.1800 and the yearly high of 1.1830 [2] - Conversely, if the euro falls below the 50-day simple moving average at 1.1576, it could drop to 1.1550 and potentially test the key level of 1.1500, with the next significant area being the August low of 1.1391 [2]