Core Viewpoint - The report from交银国际 indicates that Xinyi Energy (03868) has experienced an unexpected decline in electricity prices, increasing short-term power restriction risks. Following a recent surge in stock price, the company is now close to its target price, leading to a downgrade to a "neutral" rating due to limited valuation attractiveness amid uncertainties [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, the company reported a revenue and profit increase of 7.7% and 23.4% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - Electricity sales volume grew by 22.7%, driven by strong sunlight, with utilization hours increasing by over 3% [1]. - The restriction rate rose by approximately 10 percentage points to 14%-15% [1]. Price and Valuation Adjustments - The average tax-inclusive electricity price decreased by 12% to 0.55 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which is below the bank's expectations [1]. - The earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down by 6%, 7%, and 9% respectively [1]. - The valuation benchmark has been raised from 9.5 times to 10 times the price-to-earnings ratio, with the target price adjusted from 1.17 HKD to 1.28 HKD [1]. Market Trends and Risks - The national photovoltaic power generation utilization rate fell by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 94% [1]. - Due to the implementation of Document No. 136 and new policies for distributed photovoltaic systems, the new installed capacity in mainland China reached 212 GW, a significant increase of 107% year-on-year [1]. - Although the rush for installations is expected to slow down, the anticipated surge in grid-connected capacity is likely to increase short-term photovoltaic power restriction risks [1].
交银国际：降信义能源(03868)至“中性” 目标价升至1.28港元