降息预期再升级! 旧金山联储主席戴利从观望转向支持降息 “三连降”摆上台面

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is nearing the timing for interest rate cuts due to signs of a weakening U.S. non-farm employment market and the absence of sustained inflation driven by tariff policies, with expectations for more than two rate cuts this year [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data and Fed's Response - The U.S. non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 jobs added in July, with significant downward revisions of 258,000 jobs for May and June, marking an unprecedented 90% adjustment [1]. - The probability of a rate cut in September is approaching 90%, a significant increase from below 40% prior to the non-farm report [1]. - The labor market's weakness is evident, with the unemployment rate rising only 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, but overall indicators suggest a clear softening compared to last year [3][4]. Group 2: Fed Officials' Perspectives - Mary Daly, a member of the FOMC, indicated that the upcoming economic data will be crucial for the rate decision, maintaining an open stance on potential cuts [3]. - There is a growing possibility of a 50 basis point cut in September if labor market conditions worsen or job additions remain below 100,000 [2]. - The Fed's previous projections indicated two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, which still seems appropriate, but the timing may vary [2][3]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Conditions - There are no signs that tariff-driven price increases are permeating broader inflation data, and waiting too long for confirmation could result in delayed policy actions [4]. - The Fed is in a "balancing zone," needing to assess how to maintain downward pressure on inflation while ensuring sustainable employment growth [5].