产能去化能力偏弱致蛋价“旺季不旺”，分析师：短期仍存在下行可能

Core Viewpoint - The current egg prices in China are experiencing a significant decline, with a 2.3% drop from the previous week and a 23.7% decrease compared to the same period last year, indicating a challenging market environment for the poultry industry [1]. Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - As of August 4, the wholesale market price for eggs was 7.54 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a notable year-on-year decline [1]. - Traditional seasonal factors such as the rainy season, high temperatures affecting egg production, and pre-Mid-Autumn Festival stocking are typically expected to drive up prices, but this year, the demand is insufficient due to weak capacity reduction [1][4]. - The current age of culling hens has decreased from 538 days to 506 days, but the actual culling volume remains below historical levels, leading to slow capacity clearance and limiting upward price movement [1][4]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Insights - As of the end of July, the national inventory of laying hens was approximately 1.356 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.2% and a year-on-year increase from 1.277 billion [1]. - Future trends indicate that the positive breeding profits starting from May 2024 may lead to increased restocking activity in the second half of 2024, with a slight increase in inventory expected in Q3 of this year [2]. - Despite seasonal demand recovery anticipated in the second half of the year, the high inventory level of around 1.35 billion hens suggests that the industry must undergo significant capacity reduction to achieve market balance [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The egg price is expected to remain under pressure in the near term due to high inventory levels, with potential for further declines [4][5]. - The report suggests that the egg price may follow a pattern of being weak in the short term but stronger in the long term, depending on supply-side adjustments [4].