Market Review - On Monday, the main copper futures in Shanghai experienced narrow fluctuations, while London copper fell below the $9,600 mark before rebounding, with the domestic near-month structure shifting to flat [1] Fundamental Summary - As of August 4, the bonded copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong reached a total of 81,200 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared to July 31. Shanghai's bonded inventory was 75,500 tons, up by 500 tons, while Guangdong's remained unchanged at 5,700 tons. The inventory continues to show a slight accumulation trend, with a small amount of supply from smelters being delivered to the warehouses [2] - On August 4, the daily transaction volume of electrolytic copper among 53 surveyed domestic trading enterprises was 27,600 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons or 13.29% from the previous trading day [2] - The order volume for copper rods on August 4 was reported at 10,800 tons from 31 surveyed copper rod production enterprises and 6 traders, down by 2,800 tons or 20.73% compared to the previous trading day [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures noted that domestic copper positions remain low, and the recent sharp decline in COMEX copper has led many positions to exit. The current price level sees limited aggressive trading, with more focus on LME copper variables. The recommendation is to increase long-term put option positions on dips, as copper prices may face pressure in the important time window of August to September, with attention on inventory and capital direction changes [3] - Guantong Futures stated that following the implementation of copper tariffs, the market is returning to fundamentals. The increase in U.S. non-farm payroll data raises expectations for a rate cut in September, with a weaker dollar supporting copper prices. However, with domestic inventories at low levels, the downside potential appears limited, maintaining an overall weak outlook with a focus on the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton [3]
基本面处宽松逻辑 沪铜关注下方78000元/吨支撑
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-05 07:10