出口强劲缓解库存压力 豆油期货价格继续上涨

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The soybean oil market is experiencing a recovery in trading activity, particularly in the northern regions of China, with expectations of increased demand due to upcoming school seasons and the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of the week ending August 1, total commercial inventory of the three major oils stands at 2.36 million tons, remaining stable week-on-week but increasing by 110,000 tons month-on-month and 200,000 tons year-on-year [1] - Soybean oil inventory specifically is at 1.13 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 30,000 tons and a month-on-month increase of 110,000 tons, while year-on-year figures remain unchanged [1] - India's soybean oil imports surged by 38% in July, reaching 495,000 tons, marking the highest level in three years [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to CICC Futures, strong soybean oil exports are alleviating inventory pressures, and expectations of tighter soybean supply in Q4 are keeping soybean oil futures in a leading position, continuously reaching new highs [2] - Hongyuan Futures reports mixed trading in CBOT soybean oil futures, with a near-weak and far-strong trend, while Malaysian palm oil futures declined due to concerns over inventory and production growth [2] - The steady rise in Dalian soybean oil prices, driven by the synchronization with futures and increased exports to India, is fostering bullish market sentiment, despite unfavorable fundamentals for continued price increases [2]