开国元勋都未经历过的债市浩劫？美债遭遇“史上最惨五年”

Core Insights - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached an all-time low of 0.51% on August 4, 2020, marking a significant historical moment in the bond market [1] - Since that low, the yield has increased by nearly 400 basis points, leading to the worst rolling five-year total return on record for 10-year U.S. Treasuries [1] - The current yield of approximately 4.25% is near its long-term average, making it unlikely to replicate the historical performance seen in the early 1980s [5][6] Group 1: Historical Context - The last time the rolling five-year nominal return for 10-year Treasuries was negative was only a few times in the past 230 years [4] - The only three periods with worse real returns than the past five years were the 1790s, post-World War I high inflation, and the years leading up to 1981 [5] Group 2: Future Outlook - The current bond market is seen as correcting a long-standing overvaluation, with prices now closer to fair value if inflation is contained [6] - Despite the potential for positive real returns, the overall annual return is expected to remain in the low single digits, likely not exceeding 1% [6]