博时宏观观点：进入8-9月关键窗口期，重视风险偏好和流动性对A股支撑

Market Overview - The bond market is expected to continue fluctuating, while A-shares remain optimistic, emphasizing the support from risk appetite and liquidity [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is also anticipated to rise in the short term, with oil prices expected to remain weak and a positive outlook for gold prices [1] Economic Indicators - In the U.S., the July employment data fell short of expectations, leading to increased recession trading and rising expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - In China, the manufacturing PMI for July was below expectations, with weak new and export orders, while the construction PMI slowed due to adverse weather conditions [1][2] Market Strategy - Following the Politburo meeting, the sentiment around "anti-involution" trading has cooled, leading to a decline in risk appetite in the capital markets [1] - The bond market showed signs of stabilization with a recovery in long-term yields, while short-term fluctuations are expected to continue due to ongoing policy expectations [1] A-share Market - Since July, the A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3600 points for the first time this year [2] - Despite a weakening macro environment, the market is expected to maintain a strong position, with a focus on performance during the mid-year reporting period and market rotation characteristics [2] Hong Kong Stock Market - At the end of July, sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market began to decline, with limited value for investment [2] - However, the recent decline in U.S. employment data may temporarily benefit the funding conditions for non-U.S. markets [2] Commodity Outlook - Oil demand is expected to remain weak, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on prices [3] - Gold is likely to perform well in the short term due to recession and rate cut expectations, alongside uncertainties from tariffs and doubts about the dollar's credibility [3]