国际能源署：今明两年全球天然气需求先抑后扬

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global natural gas demand is expected to recover structurally in 2024, but growth may slow to 1.3% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024, with accelerated growth anticipated in 2026 [1] - In the first half of this year, global natural gas consumption grew by only 1% year-on-year, primarily driven by Europe and North America, with European consumption increasing by 6.5% and North American demand rising by 2.5% [1] - Asian natural gas demand has been weak, with India's consumption declining by 7% in the first five months of the year due to reduced industrial usage [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply increased by 12 billion cubic meters (BCM) in the first half of the year, a growth rate of 4%, and is expected to rise by 5.5% in 2025, equating to approximately 30 BCM [1] - Russian pipeline gas supplies to the EU fell by 45% year-on-year due to disruptions, with a projected annual decrease of about 130 BCM compared to 2024 [2] - European LNG imports surged by 25% in the first half of the year, reaching a historical peak of 92 BCM, driven by increased storage needs and reduced pipeline supplies [2] Group 3 - The report forecasts a 7% growth in global LNG supply in 2026, amounting to approximately 40 BCM, primarily from the U.S., Canada, and Qatar's North Field expansion [3] - Global natural gas consumption is expected to reach a historical high in 2026, with demand growth accelerating to around 2%, driven by industrial and energy sectors contributing nearly 50% of the global demand increase [3] - The Asia-Pacific region's natural gas demand is projected to grow by over 4% in 2026, while European demand is expected to decline by 2% due to the rise of renewable energy sources [4]