“特朗普关税”冲击全球投资格局，关税筹码能否换来投资落地？

Group 1: Global Investment Trends - The OECD warns that if current uncertainties persist, global actual investment may decrease by 1.4 percentage points by the end of next year [1] - The average investment in OECD member countries is currently 20% lower than pre-financial crisis trends and 6.7% lower than pre-pandemic trends [1] - Economic policy uncertainty is shown to significantly reduce long-term investment willingness, with a one standard deviation increase in uncertainty leading to a 1% decrease in business investment growth rate after one year [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Investment Commitments - Recent trade agreements signed by the U.S. government include investment commitments, such as Japan's $550 billion investment, the EU's $600 billion increase, and South Korea's $350 billion target [1] - There are concerns regarding the actual execution of these investment commitments, as highlighted by legal experts who note the uncertainty surrounding their effectiveness [2][4] - Discrepancies in the interpretation of investment terms between the U.S. and its trade partners have raised questions about the validity of these commitments [5] Group 3: Impact of Tariff Policies - The rise in tariff barriers is prompting foreign companies to adjust their strategic layouts, with major automotive companies announcing significant investments in U.S. production [4] - Experts suggest that Trump's tariff policies may be perceived as coercive, forcing reluctant participants to accept investment terms [4] - The effectiveness of these investment commitments is questioned, with some analysts likening them to "hollow promises" lacking clear timelines for deployment [6] Group 4: CFIUS and Regulatory Changes - The U.S. government is evolving the role of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to streamline investment reviews, particularly for investments from designated allies [8] - CFIUS is expected to implement more business-friendly measures, potentially reducing the number of cases entering the second phase of review [8] - The expansion of CFIUS's jurisdiction to include "greenfield" investments, especially in sensitive technologies, is under consideration but requires legislative support [10]