增产难抵油价大跌！沙特阿美季度利润“十连跌”，自由现金流不够覆盖股息

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Aramco has reported a decline in profits for the tenth consecutive quarter, primarily due to falling oil prices outweighing the benefits of increased production [1] Financial Performance - In Q2, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19% year-on-year to 85.63 billion riyals (approximately 22.8 billion USD), falling short of analyst expectations [1] - Free cash flow dropped by 20% to 15.2 billion USD, insufficient to cover dividend payments [2] - Total dividends for Q2 amounted to 21.36 billion USD, down from 31 billion USD in the same period last year [2] Debt and Cash Flow - Net debt increased from 24.7 billion USD at the end of Q1 to 30.8 billion USD [2] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio rose from 5.3% to 6.5%, although it remains lower than that of major Western oil companies [5] Production and Market Outlook - Saudi Aramco has been increasing production, with plans to reach nearly 10 million barrels per day by September, an increase of 1 million barrels since April [5] - The CEO expressed confidence in oil demand growth, expecting an increase of over 2 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half [5] - However, market observers anticipate continued weakness due to OPEC+ production increases, rising supply from the Americas, and slowing global economic growth, with the IEA predicting a supply surplus of 2 million barrels per day in Q4 [5] Comparative Performance - Saudi Aramco's stock performance has lagged behind major Western oil companies, with ExxonMobil and Chevron exceeding analyst expectations in Q2 [6]