乘联分会：预计2025年乘用车零售2435万辆 同比增长6%

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in China is expected to see growth in retail sales, exports, and production by 2025, driven by favorable economic conditions and government policies, despite facing challenges from domestic competition and international uncertainties [1][2][6]. Industry Forecasts - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in 2025 are projected to reach 24.35 million units, representing a 6% increase, with an upward revision of 300,000 units from previous forecasts [1]. - Passenger vehicle exports are expected to hit 5.46 million units in 2025, marking a 14% growth, with an increase of 160,000 units from earlier predictions [1]. - Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles are forecasted to reach 15.48 million units, a 27% increase, with a penetration rate of 56% [1]. - Overall, the automotive wholesale volume is anticipated to be 34.04 million units, reflecting an 8% growth, with a 5 percentage point increase from earlier estimates [1]. Economic Context - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3%, indicating a stable economic environment that supports the automotive market [1]. - The automotive sector has become the leading pillar of the national economy, surpassing other industries in output value [1]. Market Dynamics - The automotive market has shown a clear trajectory of "recovery growth, structural adjustment, and profit pressure" due to supportive government policies aimed at boosting consumption [1][6]. - In the first half of 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles grew by 10.8%, while new energy vehicle sales surged by 33.3% [1]. Production Insights - Passenger vehicle production in June 2025 reached 2.41 million units, a 13% year-on-year increase, although production growth is showing signs of slowing down [7][8]. - The cumulative production for the first half of 2025 was 13.24 million units, also reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth [8]. Export Performance - In the first half of 2025, China exported 3.48 million vehicles, with an 18% year-on-year increase, while June exports reached 620,000 units, a 28% increase compared to the previous year [10]. - The export growth is attributed to the enhanced competitiveness of Chinese products and slight growth in markets of developing countries [10].