美元或进一步走弱 人民币汇率中间价稳中趋升

Group 1: Dollar Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in the dollar index, which rose to 100 but then fell to 98.74 due to weak U.S. economic data, indicate ongoing volatility in the currency market [1] - Despite a temporary rebound, the dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of 8.5% this year, driven by weakening U.S. economic fundamentals and increasing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - The mixed performance of U.S. economic data, particularly the significantly weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls for July, has raised concerns about a slowing economy, contributing to the dollar's decline [2][3] Group 2: Renminbi Trends - The renminbi's central parity against the dollar has shown a trend of appreciation, with the latest rate at 7.1366, marking a high point since November 2024 [1] - The People's Bank of China has been actively adjusting the central parity to stabilize the renminbi, reflecting a strong policy intent to guide exchange rate stability [1][5] - The renminbi's appreciation has been less pronounced compared to other major currencies, suggesting potential for a catch-up rally if the dollar continues to weaken [5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - There is an increasing willingness among foreign investors to hold renminbi-denominated assets, as indicated by a net inflow into Hong Kong and ADR markets, signaling a shift in asset allocation strategies [6] - The Chinese government's commitment to maintaining stable exchange rates and economic growth is expected to support the renminbi's value in the near term [6] - The outlook for the renminbi remains influenced by the dollar's trajectory, U.S.-China tariff negotiations, and domestic economic policies aimed at growth stabilization [6][7]