降息预期升温，美债“牛陡”行情再现

Group 1 - The unexpected performance of the non-farm employment data has ignited market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - In July, the U.S. non-farm sector added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.2% [2] - The downward revisions of previous months' non-farm employment data have further fueled the anticipation of a rate cut, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September reaching 94.4% [2][3] Group 2 - The bond market has reacted to the softening labor market, with yields on U.S. Treasury bonds declining across the board, indicating a shift in market pricing towards policy changes and economic downturn [2][4] - The recent adjustments in employment data have led to a "recession trade," with U.S. stocks experiencing corrections while safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries have risen [4] - Despite the signs of economic weakness, the current situation does not equate to an imminent recession, as some indicators show potential recovery in employment and manufacturing [4][5]