8月5日汇市晚评：日本央行成员表示通胀略高于预期 日元兑美元日内回调走势停滞

Currency Market Overview - The euro against the dollar has entered a consolidation phase after failing to retest the 1.1600 level [1] - The British pound has returned above the 1.3300 mark against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen's intraday pullback has stalled [1] - The Australian dollar is hovering around 0.6450 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is consolidating below 0.5900 [1] - The US dollar is holding above 1.3790 against the Canadian dollar [1] Key Economic News - President Trump is set to select a distinguished successor for the US Labor Department [2] - Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with more than two cuts likely this year [2] - Former New York Fed President Dudley stated that internal divisions within the Fed have been exaggerated [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will begin a series of three 25 basis point rate cuts starting in September; a 50 basis point cut may occur if unemployment rises further [3] Non-US Major Currencies - The EU will suspend trade countermeasures against the US for six months, awaiting Trump's actions on auto tariffs and exemptions [4] - The Swiss government plans to continue talks with the US after August 7, aiming to present more attractive proposals [5] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes revealed that many members noted inflation is slightly above expectations but emphasized the need to carefully assess economic conditions due to the downside risks from US tariff policies [5] Other Economic Developments - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 64.29 billion in the market as the HKD exchange rate hit the weak end of the peg [6] - The Bank of Korea expects a significant drop in the inflation rate for August due to temporary factors [7] - Traders suggest the Reserve Bank of India may sell dollars in the local spot market to support the rupee [8] - The State Bank of Vietnam has instructed lending institutions to lower deposit rates to promote a decrease in lending rates [9] - Colombia's central bank raised its 2025 inflation forecast from 4.4% to 4.7% [10] - Argentine President Milei vetoed a pension increase bill passed by Congress [11] Technical Analysis - For EUR/USD, if bulls regain control, it may retest weekly highs of 1.1788 and challenge the psychological level of 1.2000 [12] - For USD/JPY, any subsequent rebound may face resistance around 148.00, with potential upward movement towards 149.00 if broken [12] - For AUD/USD, the pair has shown resilience below the 100-day simple moving average, but caution is advised due to a lack of strong follow-through buying [12] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes the US trade balance for June at 20:30, the final reading of the US Services PMI for July at 21:45, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July at 22:00 [14]