Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-08-05 11:05Core Viewpoint - The increase in silicon wafer prices reflects a rebound in raw material polysilicon prices, with manufacturers setting prices to avoid losses rather than competing for sales [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average price of N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers increased by 9.09% week-on-week to 1.2 yuan per piece, while N-type G12R and G12 wafers saw increases of 8.00% and 7.64%, respectively [2]. - The average price of silicon wafers rose by approximately 0.1 yuan per piece due to increased raw material costs and higher downstream orders [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The overall operating rate in the industry remained stable, with major companies operating at 50% and 40% capacity, while integrated companies operated between 50% and 80% [2]. - From the second half of 2024, pure silicon wafer producers are expected to adopt a strategy of not pursuing high operating rates or accumulating inventory, focusing instead on sales-based production [2][3]. Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The price of polysilicon has risen from 35,000 yuan/ton to 45,000 yuan/ton, which could lead to a cost increase of 0.02 to 0.03 yuan/W for component manufacturing [3]. - Despite the increase in polysilicon prices, it is anticipated that prices will not reach 60,000 yuan/ton due to existing inventory levels and production rates, which would make it difficult for downstream manufacturers to absorb the costs [3]. Group 4: Policy and Regulation - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice for energy-saving inspections in the polysilicon industry, which may limit outdated production capacity and concentrate production among leading companies [4]. - The National Market Supervision Administration has prohibited sales below cost, which helps stabilize price floors in the market [4]. Group 5: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of the year, while Tongwei and JA Solar also anticipate significant losses [5][6]. - Despite the losses, Longi Green Energy reported an increase in component sales, although the overall competitive environment has led to continued losses [6]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The solar power sector saw a 99.3% year-on-year increase in new installed capacity, with 268 million kW added in the first half of the year, supporting the stabilization of silicon wafer prices [3][6]. - The forecast for solar installation capacity in 2025 has been adjusted upward to between 570 GW and 630 GW, indicating continued growth in the sector [6].