天然气省内管输价格机制新规出台，业内人士如何看对行业影响

Core Viewpoint - The recent guidelines aim to systematically restructure the natural gas industry chain's profit distribution and behavioral rules through a pricing mechanism, allowing downstream gas users to benefit from reduced pipeline transportation costs [1][2]. Pricing Mechanism - The guidelines establish a unified pricing model for provincial natural gas pipeline transportation, transitioning from "one line one price" and "one enterprise one price" to either zonal pricing or a unified provincial price [3]. - The pricing will be determined by provincial development and reform departments based on permitted costs and regulated returns, promoting a reduction in gas supply costs by compressing supply chain layers [1][5]. Regulatory Framework - The core objective is to create a scientific, transparent, and efficient pricing mechanism to address long-standing issues such as inconsistent pricing, poor cost transmission, and inefficient resource allocation in the industry [2]. - The guidelines emphasize strict government pricing regulation for the natural monopoly of pipeline transportation while promoting market-oriented reforms for upstream gas sourcing and downstream sales [2]. Cost Structure and Impact - The pricing will be based on the "permitted cost plus reasonable return" method, with pipeline asset depreciation set at 40 years and permitted return rates not exceeding the 10-year government bond yield plus 4 percentage points [5]. - This approach is expected to lower provincial pipeline transportation fees, with estimates suggesting a permitted return rate around 6%, significantly lower than the 7%-8% rates for most cross-provincial pipelines [5]. Market Dynamics - The reduction in midstream costs and the elimination of redundant supply chain layers are anticipated to lead to lower transportation prices, subsequently decreasing end-user gas prices and alleviating cost pressures on downstream users [6]. - The new regulations are expected to enhance market vitality for end-user gas consumption and improve demand-side management for city gas companies, allowing large users to bypass distribution channels and directly access pipeline gas sources [6].