美元“死猫跳”？双线资本：或将大幅贬值，开启“数年下行周期”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar is expected to depreciate significantly, especially if the new Federal Reserve Chairman takes swift action to lower interest rates [1][4] - As of September 2024, the assets managed by DoubleLine Capital amount to $95 billion [1] - The dollar has entered a multi-year downtrend due to investor concerns over the US's large fiscal deficit, leading to a shift in investments to other regions [1][4] Group 2 - A major negative factor for the dollar is President Trump's push to lower borrowing costs, which raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve [4] - Recent economic data indicates a weaker labor market than previously expected, and inflation indicators favored by the Federal Reserve have risen, putting additional pressure on the dollar [4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has seen a cumulative decline of over 7% this year, despite a recent 0.2% increase [4] Group 3 - The biggest threat to the theory of dollar depreciation is the potential return of "exceptionalism" policies in the US, which could boost demand for US assets [5] - The investment manager is closely monitoring commitments from trade partners, including the EU and Japan, to invest billions into the US, which could offset capital outflows [5] - The speed of global savings returning to the US is expected to be slower than in the past, aside from trade agreements [5]