【环球财经】华侨银行：6月新加坡零售销售反弹但内需走软

Group 1 - Singapore's retail sales in June 2025 increased by 2.3% year-on-year, outperforming May's growth of 1.3%, but showed a month-on-month seasonally adjusted decline of 1.2% [1] - The decline in retail sales is attributed to the school holidays and a stronger Singapore dollar, leading families to spend more on overseas travel, which weakened domestic retail demand [1] - The number of inbound tourists dropped to 1.25 million in June, the lowest point of the year, impacting the retail market [1] Group 2 - Excluding automobile sales, the year-on-year growth of retail sales was only 0.4%, indicating weakness in the core consumer market [1] - Automobile sales were the main driver of growth, with a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, while sales in several sectors, including gas stations and food and beverage, experienced declines [1] - The overall retail sales for the first half of 2025 grew by 1.2% year-on-year, a slowdown compared to 2.2% in the same period last year [2] Group 3 - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Singapore rose to 52.7 in July, indicating economic expansion for six consecutive months, despite a cooling labor market [2] - Input price inflation reached a six-month high, while selling prices remained nearly unchanged, suggesting potential pressure on profit margins for businesses [2] - The forecast for retail sales in Q3 2025 remains weak, with expectations of stabilization in Q4 due to a lower base, projecting an annual growth of 1% to 1.5% [2]