Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, leading to immediate market reactions and shifts in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement caused a spike in interest rates for new bonds due to increased holding costs, but this was quickly reversed as older bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a drop in interest rates [1][2]. - The market experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with initial volatility settling down as investors adjusted to the new information [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a neutral impact on the bond market in the medium term, but the differentiation between new and old bonds may widen the yield spread, favoring older bonds [2][3]. - Fund managers are adjusting their strategies, with a tendency to favor older bonds that retain their tax-exempt status, while new bonds may require higher coupon rates to attract investors [2][3]. Group 3: Fund Flow Dynamics - The tax policy change is expected to lead to a reallocation of funds, with some capital moving from the bond market to equity markets, particularly into stable dividend-paying sectors [3]. - There is a potential shift towards credit bonds, especially those with strong credit ratings, as investors seek to optimize returns in light of increased costs associated with new bonds [3]. Group 4: Future Investment Strategies - Some investment firms are planning to focus on "fixed income plus" products, including convertible bonds, REITs, and equities, to compensate for the expected decline in returns from traditional bond holdings [4].
存量券受青睐,资金配置或分流
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-08-05 14:56