存量券受青睐 资金配置或分流

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, leading to immediate market reactions and shifts in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement caused a spike in interest rates for new bonds due to increased holding costs, but this was followed by a reversal as older bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a drop in interest rates [1][2]. - The market experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with initial volatility settling down as investors adjusted to the new information [1]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a neutral impact on the bond market in the medium term, but the differentiation between new and old bonds may widen the yield spread, favoring older bonds [2][3]. - Existing bonds are expected to retain structural advantages over newly issued bonds, as investors may prefer older bonds that remain tax-exempt, leading to a potential decline in the attractiveness of new bonds [2]. Group 3: Fund Allocation Shifts - The tax policy change is likely to lead to a shift in fund allocation, with some funds moving from the bond market to equity markets, particularly towards stable dividend-paying stocks and credit bonds [3][4]. - Fund managers are adjusting their strategies, with some focusing on "fixed income plus" products that include convertible bonds, REITs, and equities to compensate for the expected decline in returns from pure bond holdings [4].