今夜！跳水！

Market Performance - US stock market experienced a significant drop after a disappointing services sector report, with the Dow Jones falling approximately 100 points and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 declining about 0.5% [3][4] - The ISM services index for July showed almost zero growth, raising concerns about stagflation, which is characterized by high inflation and low employment [4][5] Economic Indicators - The ISM services index decreased to 50.1, below all economists' forecasts, indicating a slowdown in the services sector, which constitutes about 70% of the US economy [5] - The employment index fell to 46.4, marking the fourth contraction in five months and reaching one of the lowest levels since the pandemic [5] - The new orders index dropped to 50.3, nearing stagnation levels, reflecting a slowdown in business activity [6] Industry Insights - Despite some sectors like transportation, wholesale trade, and finance showing growth, seven industries contracted, with the accommodation and food services sector experiencing the largest decline [6] - Concerns over tariffs and rising prices were frequently mentioned by survey participants, indicating ongoing challenges for businesses [6] Investor Sentiment - Major Wall Street firms, including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank, are warning investors to prepare for a market pullback due to high stock valuations and deteriorating economic data [8][9] - Predictions suggest that the S&P 500 could see a short-term decline of up to 10% to 15% in the coming weeks to months [9][10] - Historical data indicates that August and September are typically weak months for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.7% [10] Market Valuation - The S&P 500's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 76, indicating overbought conditions, as it surpassed the 70 threshold considered as a warning sign [10] - The cost of options to hedge against a 10% decline in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is nearing the highest level since the regional banking crisis in May 2023, reflecting increased concerns about potential market downturns [10]