存量频强赎增量难放量可转债供不应求局面加剧

Core Viewpoint - The forced redemption of convertible bonds is accelerating, leading to a significant decrease in the total outstanding amount of convertible bonds in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of August 5, 2023, 71 convertible bonds have been delisted from exchanges this year, with 51 of these delistings due to forced redemption [2][4]. - The total outstanding amount of convertible bonds has decreased by 80.564 billion yuan to 653.058 billion yuan [4]. - The recovery of the equity market and the decline in new financing costs have contributed to the acceleration of forced redemptions [1][2]. Group 2: Issuance and Supply Constraints - Only 26 new convertible bonds have been issued this year, totaling 40.579 billion yuan, which is still significantly lower than peak years like 2022 [5][6]. - The willingness of listed companies to issue new convertible bonds is constrained by previous market downturns, leading to lower funding needs [5][6]. - Regulatory changes, such as the new refinancing rules from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, have further restricted the issuance of new convertible bonds [6][7]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Outlook - Despite the reduction in supply, demand for convertible bonds remains high, particularly among institutional investors seeking "fixed income plus" products [8]. - The increasing number of forced redemptions is making investors more cautious and compressing their selection space, which may enhance overall market liquidity [8]. - The current market environment suggests that the premium on convertible bonds may remain high due to the declining supply [8].