债券增值税政策刺激公募委外需求 “固收+”或增配红利资产

Core Viewpoint - The recent changes in value-added tax (VAT) policy have led to significant fluctuations in the bond market, prompting institutional investors to adjust their strategies for higher yields in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of VAT Policy Changes - The announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on August 8 reinstated VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds, affecting all bond types without exceptions [2]. - The VAT rate for institutional investors is approximately 6.34%, while public fund products benefit from a reduced VAT burden of about 3.26%, indicating a greater impact on banks, insurance companies, and brokerages compared to public funds [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Investment Strategies - The differences in VAT treatment among various institutions may lead to increased demand for outsourcing bond investments to external public asset management firms, especially as the yield space shrinks in a low-interest-rate environment [3]. - Institutions are likely to adjust their investment strategies to seek higher interest income to offset the losses from VAT, which may involve shifting towards credit bonds as the tax differences between government and credit bonds diminish [4]. Group 3: Shift Towards "Fixed Income Plus" Strategies - Institutional investors may reallocate funds from the bond market to dividend-paying stocks, reflecting a shift in the "fixed income plus" strategy due to the rigid nature of liability costs [5]. - Insurance funds have been actively increasing their equity investments, particularly in high-dividend stocks, while still maintaining a significant presence in the bond market, particularly in government bonds [5].