多重不稳定因素影响 乙烯产业发展在欧洲或将停滞

Group 1 - The European chemical industry has experienced a wave of steam cracker shutdowns and downstream capacity consolidation over the past 18 months due to rising raw material costs, low naphtha cracking margins, low-priced imports, structural market oversupply, and weak demand [1] - Six steam crackers in Europe have been shut down or are planned to be shut down, with the potential for this number to increase in the future [1] - Major companies like Saudi Basic Industries Corporation and Dow Chemical have announced closures of their steam cracker facilities in the UK and Germany, respectively, indicating a necessary reduction in ethylene capacity to alleviate oversupply [1] Group 2 - Global demand for feedstock for steam crackers is projected to increase from 432 million tons in 2024 to 610 million tons by 2034, with ethylene production from ethane and naphtha expected to reach 74 million tons each in 2024 [2] - The report emphasizes that unless Europe consolidates its ethylene market to address years of oversupply, it will face a prolonged downturn [2] - As of the end of 2024, the operating rate of European steam crackers is expected to be around 75%, necessitating a reduction of approximately 2 million tons per year of ethylene capacity to rebalance the market [2] Group 3 - European ethylene production profits and prices are expected to remain under pressure for the remainder of the year, with spot prices fluctuating around €790 per ton since the end of 2022 and dropping to €563 per ton in July 2023 [3] - European ethylene producers have gradually lost global competitiveness due to consistently lower spot prices compared to other regions since Q2 2022, forcing them to reduce operating rates or shut down facilities [3] - High costs and geopolitical, tariff, and macroeconomic instability are severely restricting the development of the European ethylene industry, with a potential stagnation in growth if there are no relevant policy subsidies [3]