智通财经网·2025-08-05 23:56Core Viewpoint - The recent shift in China's export control policy for compliant antimony products is expected to alleviate the downward pressure on antimony prices, with a potential price increase anticipated in August and September [1][2]. Group 1: Antimony Price Trends - Antimony prices have experienced a cycle of decline, increase, decline, and stabilization since H2 2024, with export demand being a key variable influencing these changes [1]. - The price dynamics are influenced by several factors, including export control measures, photovoltaic glass production adjustments, and smuggling activities [2][3]. Group 2: Export Control and Smuggling - Following the implementation of export controls in September 2024, the price gap between domestic and international markets widened significantly, leading to increased smuggling activities [2]. - The Chinese government has initiated a special action to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, resulting in a substantial decline in antimony export volumes [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The recent easing of export management signals a potential recovery in export volumes, with expectations for improvement in August and September [3]. - Projections indicate that the marginal supply-demand balance for antimony may reverse in Q3 2025, potentially driving prices upward [4].