Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1] Market Reaction - The announcement led to an immediate spike in bond yields due to increased holding costs for new bonds, followed by a rapid reversal as existing bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a significant drop in yields [1] - The market experienced volatility as traders quickly shifted strategies, indicating a rapid change in sentiment [1] Institutional Insights - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a medium to short-term impact on the bond market, with a potential widening of the yield spread between new and existing bonds, leading to a buying spree for existing bonds [2][4] - The structural advantage of existing bonds over new issues is expected to influence investor behavior, with a preference for older bonds due to their tax benefits [2][3] Investment Strategy Adjustments - Fund companies are adjusting redemption limits for bond funds in response to the new tax policy, indicating a proactive approach to manage potential market fluctuations [4] - Institutions are exploring alternative investment strategies, including a shift towards credit bonds, REITs, and equities, as the attractiveness of newly issued bonds diminishes [5][7] Tax Implications - The new tax policy primarily affects interest income, while public funds retain their tax advantages on capital gains, potentially increasing demand for public funds over bank proprietary products [6] - The tax changes are expected to have a limited impact on the overall asset allocation of banks and insurance companies, which continue to view government bonds as essential components of their portfolios [7][8]
债券增值税调整“激起千层浪”：投资端选项多元化 配置资金酝酿分流
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-08-06 00:03