氧化铝价格可能维持震荡

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a strong bullish sentiment driven by "anti-involution" and the elimination of outdated capacity, leading to alumina prices surpassing 3500 yuan/ton [1] - Guinea's rainy season has significantly impacted bauxite supply, with a notable decrease in weekly export volumes since late June, although supply is expected to improve in the second half of the year [2] - Domestic alumina production has decreased due to recent inspections, with June's output at 5.1933 million tons, a 3.2% month-on-month decline but a 4.1% year-on-year increase [2] Group 2 - Alumina production capacity remains stable, with a significant increase in total output to 45.56 million tons in the first half of the year, a 364,000-ton increase year-on-year [3] - The industry profit has rebounded to approximately 400 yuan/ton, with operational capacity rising to 94.75 million tons, indicating a lower urgency for "anti-involution" compared to other sectors [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is approximately 45.69 million tons, with operational capacity at 43.83 million tons, and limited supply growth expected due to capacity replacement [4] Group 3 - The total registered alumina warehouse receipts are only 6,922 tons, less than 20% of total inventory, raising concerns about short-squeeze risks in the market [5] - The "anti-involution" policy has had limited actual effects on the alumina industry, with profit recovery leading to increased supply and maintaining a slight oversupply situation [5] - Future market conditions for alumina are expected to remain challenging, with a focus on the ongoing balance between cost support and capacity oversupply [5]