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九洲药业(603456):以技术创新为核心 打造创新药CDMO一站式服务平台

Group 1: Small Molecule CDMO Business - The company focuses on technological innovation to build a leading global CDMO platform for innovative drugs, serving major pharmaceutical companies like Novartis [1] - The sales of the company's Noxintin project raw materials have significantly increased, with sales growing from $507 million in 2017 to $7.822 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 47.83% [1] - In the first half of 2025, sales reached $4.618 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.27% [1] Group 2: Peptide Conjugate CDMO Services - The company has established a TIDES division to expand peptide conjugate drug and small nucleic acid technology platforms, providing comprehensive CDMO services from preclinical research to commercial production [2] - The company is actively expanding its peptide production capacity, with the second phase of peptide capacity construction initiated by the end of 2024, including the expansion of OEB5 level high-activity workshops [2] Group 3: API Business - The company is strategically positioning itself in the market by focusing on specialty APIs in areas such as anti-infectives, central nervous system drugs, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and hypoglycemic agents [3] - Sales of anti-infective APIs increased from 292.46 tons in 2021 to 325.32 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 3.61% [3] - Sales of central nervous system APIs grew from 863.34 tons in 2021 to 1003.08 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 5.13% [3] - Sales of non-steroidal APIs rose from 298.93 tons in 2021 to 368.45 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 7.22% [3] - Sales of hypoglycemic APIs increased from 328.26 tons in 2021 to 362.66 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 3.38% [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 921 million yuan, 1.052 billion yuan, and 1.158 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 52.0%, 14.2%, and 10.0% respectively [4] - Based on the average valuation of comparable A-share listed companies, a PE ratio of 23 times is assigned for 2025, with an expected EPS of 1.04 yuan per share, leading to a target price of 23.92 yuan per share in six months [4]