利率债失去“免税光环” 存量券受青睐 资金配置或分流

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, leading to immediate market reactions and shifts in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, there was an initial spike in interest rates due to increased holding costs for new bonds, but this was quickly reversed as older bonds became more attractive due to their tax-exempt status, resulting in a drop in interest rates [1][2]. - The market experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with institutional funds quickly shifting their focus towards older bonds, altering the supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - Institutions believe the tax adjustment will have a medium-term impact on the bond market, with a potential widening of the yield spread between new and old bonds, favoring the latter [2][3]. - Existing bonds are seen to have structural advantages over newly issued bonds due to the continued tax exemption, leading to a preference for older bonds among investors [2][3]. Group 3: Fund Allocation Shifts - The tax policy change is expected to lead to a reallocation of funds, with some investors moving from the bond market to equity markets, particularly towards stable dividend-paying stocks and credit bonds [3][4]. - Fund companies are adjusting their strategies, with some increasing their focus on "fixed income plus" products, including convertible bonds and REITs, to compensate for the anticipated decline in returns from pure bond assets [4].